So I have an interesting topic for all of you guys who are avid gamblers. Do you ever wonder who creates the odds for your favorite teams on all of these esports betting sites? Have you also noticed that most of these odds are somewhat different from each other, depending on the sites you visit? Also, have you ever wondered if you can ever beat the house and run away with your parlay if ever you put in multiple bets?
Well, if you want answers to all these questions that have been nagging you, sit tight, relax and grab a drink! I will be talking about all of these questions, and hopefully you readers and gamblers out there get some tips or a little something out of this.
Who’s behind the odds?
So the first thing I will be discussing is the topic, “Who creates the odds to bet on esports?” Well that, my friends, is actually a simple question with a simple answer. The odds are usually provided to the sites by the bookmakers in the various gambling commissions around the world. So how does it really work? Let’s break it down so that we can understand it further.
The odds that are being used in various sites are created by either the bookies that run the sites themselves, or they are created by the bookies that work in any of the gambling commissions that provides gambling licenses for these sites. They have a few metrics being used to actually determine how they set these odds.
The first metric they use are the world rankings of these specific teams. Some game developers publish the top-rated players or teams for their own particular games, such as Overwatch and Starcraft 2. Other ranking lists come from third party companies what specifically hosts and creates top tier tourneys. Companies like ESEA, ESL, and FaceIt to name a few, have their own ranking lists on various titles they have tournaments in. Now, this is only one part of the system on how they set the odds for betting.
The second metric that most bookies use to determine the odds are the achievements of the competitors. The most important achievement records they base the bets on are the most recent awards that the players have earned. Sure, they will also definitely look at the whole history of achievements, but the biggest information that impacts the creation of these odds would be the more recent achievements.
For example, they can have a low odds for a Hall of Famer against a newbie who has not played much compared to a tournament grinder who consistently places well in the tourneys compared against the same opponent.
The next metric they look at is the roster / team / lineup composition. This is especially true for titles that have teams on it competing such as CS:GO, Dota 2, League of Legends and Overwatch. Teams who have been successful before will always be the preferred side to wager on if they retain their roster who has won a Major.
This can also work the other way around. Squads who usually lose a couple of their star players, and who sign new ‘no-name players’ gets knocked down the list and sometimes given higher odd choices if they play against the new teams that their old stars went too. Stand-ins, injuries, and substitutions also affect this metric since those actually change the team dynamics of the said roster.
The fourth metric bookies like to use is head to head results. This is also important, especially in squads or organizations who get to the top 8 of every competition they get into. Bookmakers will look at the historical data of these two squads who will be going against each other and pit the individual stats against each other to see how these rosters stack up against each other.
Usually, the one with the better head to head results is given the better wagering odds even if the other squad is higher on the rankings, due to the plain raw data that these head to head matchups give out.
And last but not the least, popularity. Popularity is actually the easiest metric that they use as they do not really need a mathematician to crunch the numbers here to provide good numbers for betting. I mean, look at the idea on the most basic aspect.
Who would pick and bet on a team or a player who no one has heard of if they are going against a squad or a roster from one of the biggest teams in the world? I mean almost 99% of the people would put their money on the one that is more successful and more known, although there will always be a few adventurous ones who will wager for the little guy.
How to beat the house
Now here comes the age-old question that everyone would like to know about, is there any way that you will be able to beat the house? Well my friends, to that, I say the answer is yes! Gamblers have a chance to be able to beat the house consistently. Now hold on your horses though, I did not say 100%, I said consistently. There is actually no way to beat the house 100% unless you either hack the site or cheat. We do not condone cheating here in Esports Betting Ninja, we promote honest and responsible gambling.
However, I can proudly say that I have beaten the house consistently before. Remember Astralis’ run to glory last year? I had an 82% win rate on all of my CS:GO bets and wagers in the whole year of 2018. Hey, 82% is not 100% but it is pretty high if you ask me.
Now your next question would be for sure, “How did you do it?” And my answer to that is very simple, it only consists of 3 words. Cold hard facts! What I did is what most of the bookies use to determine the odds they place on these squads. I researched every matchup that Astralis will be playing against, down to the playstyles of each player, and the favorite maps that those squads play.
Now, after gathering this data, I compiled them and ran my own simulation in my head and how they stack up, and I had Astralis winning their 1 v 1 matchups 56% of the time. That usually urged me to bet on Astralis, even if they have a somewhat even or worse on world rankings, I would follow the data on paper and live by it.
So what was actually special about my method? Absolutely nothing! I just use the same metrics that the bookmakers use to determine the betting value of these teams, then used it to research and increase my own chances to win. It is not even considered cheating, as this information that they use are actually available to the public, you just need to do a little digging and a little work to succeed.
Well that and a little help from Lady Luck, and who knows, you might be able to replicate my golden year of 2018 and come up with your own 82% win rate year. Always remember though, trust the data, and trust your gut! Good luck!